During a webinar on June 11, sector leaders acknowledged the “tremendous damage” being inflicted on international education in the US, as the ramping up of harmful government policies take hold on student interest.
In particular, the administration’s ongoing suspension of visa interviews, its attacks on Harvard and its travel ban on 12 countries have caused international student interest to fall to its lowest level since mid-pandemic.
New data shared by Keystone Education Group highlighted year-on-year interest falling by 55% and 52% respectively in April and May 2025, coinciding with Trump’s tariff announcements, the start of his ongoing feud with Harvard and widespread visa revocations, to name a few harmful policies.
Commenting on the near real-time data shared during the ICEF webinar, NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw acknowledged the “tremendous damage” done to the sector in recent months, adding: “There’s no need to sugarcoat it. That’s a reality.”
“How students feel matters tremendously – when people feel uncertainty, it matters, and it has implications for human behaviour,” said Aw, pointing to the current visa interview suspension and its implications for students and US institutions.
Highlighting this, attendees heard that Middle Eastern offer holders felt “unwelcome, uncertain, and unsafe” in the US, with 60% considering other study options, according to Saqr Alkharabsheh, who works as a student recruitment manager in Jordan at Oval Office Group, an education service provider that operates in the Middle East and New Zealand.
Critically, the visa interview freeze – now in place for 16 days – has blocked more than half of international students due to enrol in the US in September from booking a visa interview, according to Studyportals estimates.
The impact of the freeze, coupled with the wider policy landscape, is so that if things don’t change, “the damage to the sector could be worse than the impact of the pandemic,” warned Studyportals CEO Edwin van Rest.
While IDP data collected before May 12th showed 83% of students still viewing the US favourably, much has changed in the past month.
What’s more, 87% of students in the same IDP survey said they were worried about potential changes to visa and post-graduation work rights, highlighting significant concerns about current policies.
In the short-term, visa frustrations have made 35% of students likely to defer their study plans in the US, with 30% saying that they were likely to cancel them altogether, according to Keystone, adding that students were pivoting towards the UK, Europe and Asia.
And yet, amid shifting global mobility and efforts of some global destinations to attract US researchers and protect academic freedom, Aw emphasised: “This is not a zero-sum game. There are no winners and losers.”
“What the US has invested in research, other countries will not be able to catch up in the next five to ten years,” said Aw, highlighting the losses to global research that will impact everybody.
Webinar panellists raised additional concerns about declining interest among “mid funnel students” – those who are one or two years out from beginning their studies – 44% of whom are considering other destinations, as per IDP data.
This is not a zero-sum game. There are no winners and losers.
Fanta Aw, NAFSA
As for risk mitigation, universities should consider online learning and TNE, advised leaders, noting a rising interest in alternative options that allow students to begin their studies online or elsewhere, with the view of moving onto campus in the future.
And while institutions devise recruitment strategies, they were reminded that international students are “not a monolith,” with those from India, Nigeria and Nepal generally maintaining a stronger view of the US than Chinese students indicating lower favourability.
While no actions have been taken to advance the policy, Marco Rubio’s alarming announcement to “aggressively revoke” Chinese student visas has fuelled fear and uncertainty among the 277,000 Chinese students in the US, as well as prospective students.
“The last three weeks have been dramatic and lots of Chinese students are deciding not to begin their studies in the US this summer,” said Hanks Jun Han, vice president of global business development at Bright Can-Achieve education agency in Beijing.
“Chinese students apply to multiple countries and often have multiple offers in hand, so lots of them are already shifting to other countries after the visa pause,” added Jun Han, citing safety concerns as a major factor influencing student decisions.
When it comes to field of study, declining interest from international students is hitting sustainability disciplines most acutely, followed by STEM and healthcare, with over half of international students in the US taking STEM subjects.
As highlighted by van Rest, 74% of electrical engineering students in the US are international, which begs the question of how such a vital industry would survive without international education.
It is for this reason – the $44 bn economic impact of international students as well as their “much, much, much larger” overall contribution – that van Rest is hopeful the “tables will turn,” echoing his fellow panellists in emphasising the resilience and entrepreneurial spirit of the sector.
The post Trump effect “could be worse than Covid”, sector leaders warn appeared first on The PIE News.