The UK government’s recent immigration white paper laid out a number of changes for the UK institutions, including changes to compliance metrics.
The government’s proposal is to raise the minimum pass requirement of each Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) metric by five percentage points, so that a sponsor must maintain a course enrolment rate of at least 95% and a course completion rate of 90% in order to pass the compliance threshold.
However, the change that has most unsettled the sector is the proposal to tighten the visa refusal rate compliance threshold, halving it from 10% to 5%.
A traffic-light system of green, amber, red will be created to publicly identify which universities are in breach of their sponsor licence – with red signalling a major breach.
In a webinar co-hosted by The PIE and the International Higher Education Commission (IHEC), leaders in international and higher education came together to discuss the white paper, sharing their thoughts on the proposed changes, including the BCA metrics.
David Pilsbury, member and secretary of IHEC said that the government is “right” to ask the sector to do better but said that whether the proposed thresholds are appropriate is up for debate.
“The new BCA stats are perhaps the harshest measure but [the sector] hasn’t been compelling enough about the data to rebut the assertions – for example, IHEC reported that overseas students continuation rates are amongst the best in the OECD and three times better than in Australia,” he added.
“Given our exemplary performance compared to competitors and that students failing to complete are required to leave the country immediately it is not clear quite what problem [the government] are trying to solve, other than it being a cack-handed attempt to damp down the growth in former polytechnics that the white paper picks out.”
Meanwhile, Pat Saini, partner and head immigration practice and Penningtons Manches Cooper, described the assessment as “arbitrary” and explained how one recruitment cycle could “pull an institution out” of the BCA requirements.
The immigration partner therefore highly doubts any institution would “lord it over” an institution on a lower ranking, noting that any institution can end up in that situation “very very quickly”.
Panellists warned that if providers lose their licenses, the resulting reputational damage could impact not only individual institutions but the sector as a whole.
“Decisions that are made at a point in time impact you in the future – whether that’s a visa refusal rate or a course completion rate,” said Saini.
Regardless, Saini said the proposals send a “clear message to institutions that compliance is key”.
Pilsbury noted that even before Reform’s local election gains, the sector recognised public concern over immigration.
“We have a role to play. We cannot sit aside from the population as a whole,” said Pilsbury, who is urging the sector to embrace “new possibilities show that we understand our part in the new contract with government”.
But concerns remain. Higher education expert Janet Ilieva, founder of Education Insight, predicts the implications of the changes to enrolment and visa refusal requirements will be hugely detrimental to universities’ geographical diversification efforts by deterring universities from recruiting from newer or riskier markets.
Ilieva pointed out that such efforts have already been battered by policy changes in recent year, including major shifts such as Brexit and geopolitical tensions with China, which have caused the UK to become a “master’s market”, where a high number of issued visas is likely.
“However, students are applying to multiple countries,” explained Ilieva. “What I’m hearing is that the no-show rate is increasing, which means it is quite difficult to implement using the enrolment as a requirement for compliance because it is outside of the university’s reach.”
In terms of compliance, not all of those things are in the university’s power to implement
Janet Ilieva, Education Insight
“In terms of compliance, not all of those things are in the university’s power to implement,” added Ilieva.
Many institutions – already facing financial pressures – may struggle to absorb the additional costs of ensuring and monitoring compliance, particularly as the metrics continue to shift.
Practical issues around data timing and availability are also predicted as the new system is implemented.
The full webinar hosted in partnership with IHEC is available to watch on demand.
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